Is solar PV worth it in Germany in 2026? The 20-year balance
A 10 kWp system at the German average earns €24,794 over 20 years. Below €2,479 per kWp purchase price, you end up ahead.
Checked by Radif Partners · Editorial policy · How we calculate
Whether your PV system pays
Payback
12.1 years
| Benefit per year | €1,240 |
| of which saving / feed-in | €574 / €665 |
| Self-consumption | 15 % |
| Net gain after 20 years | €9,794 |
Whether rooftop solar is worth it in Germany comes down to one comparison: the purchase price against the sum of the electricity bill you avoid and the feed-in tariff (Einspeisevergütung) over the 20 years in which the rate is fixed. At the national average, a 10 kWp system facing south at 30° produces 10,523 kWh a year according to PVGIS. A household using 4,000 kWh uses 15 % of that itself and saves €574 at 36.2 ct/kWh; the rest earns another €665 at 7.70 ct/kWh. That is €1,240 a year and €24,794 over 20 years, with no rise in power prices at all. Hence the break-even price: if the system costs less than €2,479 per kWp, money is left over. At an assumed €1,500 per kWp, the surplus is €9,794. In Munich it rises to €11,037, in Bremen it falls to €8,734; higher consumption matters more than location.
The one calculation that matters
A rooftop system earns money in two ways. The bigger lever is the power the house uses itself: each such kilowatt-hour no longer has to be bought at the household price, which Eurostat puts at 36.2 ct for the first half of the year. The second is the surplus, which the grid operator (Netzbetreiber) pays at the fixed rate of the commissioning period: for systems from 1 August 2026, 7.70 ct/kWh up to 10 kWp according to the Federal Network Agency. Together they make the annual benefit. Added up over 20 years and set against the purchase price, it shows whether you end up ahead.
This page calculates conservatively: the electricity price stays flat for the whole term, so does the yield, and nothing is counted after the payment period ends, even though panels usually keep working. If you want to factor in rising prices, the year-by-year view is under solar PV payback.
The break-even price: where it tips
Instead of asking how quickly a given system pays for itself, you can turn the question round: how expensive may it be at most? At the national average, a 10 kWp system with 4,000 kWh of consumption brings in €24,794 over 20 years. Divided by its capacity, that is €2,479 per kWp. If your quote is below this, the system pays even without rising power prices; if it is above, only if electricity gets dearer or your use grows. This threshold is more honest than any rule of thumb because it assumes nothing about market prices: you compare it directly with the total on your quote divided by the kilowatts peak.
Five cases compared
| Case | Benefit per year | Payback | Surplus after 20 years |
|---|---|---|---|
| National average, 10 kWp | €1,240 | 12.1 years | €9,794 |
| Bremen, 10 kWp | €1,187 | 12.6 years | €8,734 |
| Munich, 10 kWp | €1,302 | 11.5 years | €11,037 |
| 6,000 kWh consumption | €1,420 | 10.6 years | €13,399 |
| 5 kWp instead of 10 | €784 | 9.6 years | €8,171 |
| with 8 kWh battery | €1,714 | 12.2 years | €13,286 |
Three things stand out. Location moves the result less than people expect: Munich yields about 14 % more than Bremen, but almost all of that extra goes to the grid, where it is poorly paid. Consumption has a stronger effect because it replaces expensive grid power. And the battery adds €475 a year; over 20 years that covers a battery price of up to €9,493. At the assumed €6,000 it improves the balance, and a dearer quote would reverse that. The exact yield for your postcode comes from the yield calculator by postcode, based on PVGIS.
What can make it fail
Shade and the state of the roof
A chimney, dormer or neighbour's tree that casts shade at midday costs more yield than any compass direction. If the roof needs renovating in the next few years, do that before mounting: taking panels down and putting them back up eats into the surplus.
The 60 per cent cap without a smart meter
New systems below 100 kW without a smart meter (intelligentes Messsystem) may feed in only 60 % of their rated output (section 9(2) EEG). At the national average, the 10 kWp system loses 294 kWh a year this way, 2.8 % of its output. With a smart meter the cap goes, but quarter-hours with negative wholesale prices earn nothing (section 51 EEG); the annual benefit is then €1,096 instead of €1,240. More under solar peak law.
A system too big for your consumption
Self-consumption comes from a simulation using the HTW Berlin load profiles. A household that is empty during the day uses less solar power than the average; one with a home office uses more. If unsure, assume lower self-consumption and see whether the balance still holds.
Running costs: your own assumption
The table leaves out running costs because they differ from house to house. Some building insurance policies cover the system at no extra charge, others add a premium; the metering operator charges an annual fee for the bidirectional meter; and an inverter often does not last as long as the panels, so setting money aside for a replacement makes sense. Put in one yearly figure that you know from your own paperwork. As an illustration: with an assumed €150 a year, the national-average 10 kWp system's surplus over 20 years shrinks from €9,794 to €6,794, and the break-even price drops by €300 per kWp.
If you finance the purchase, subtract the interest too; the rate is in your loan offer, not in any table.
What comes next
Systems commissioned by the end of 2026 fall under the EEG 2023 with its fixed rate. The government draft of the EEG 2027 has not been passed; it would change the fixed payment for new systems, see feed-in tariff 2027. Your own case with postcode, battery and smart meter is worked out by the solar PV calculator, and solar PV cost breaks down the price side.