Solar PV payback in Germany 2026: when your system is in profit
A 10 kWp system at an assumed €15,000 is in profit in year 13 at the German average if the electricity price stays flat. If it rises by 2% a year, already in year 12.
Checked by Radif Partners · Editorial policy · How we calculate
The year your system breaks even
In profit from year
13
| Benefit in year one (10 kWp) | €1,240 |
| Total over 20 years | €24,794 |
| Net gain after 20 years | €9,794 |
The payback of a solar PV system is the year in which the sum of annual returns reaches the purchase price. Each year's return has two parts that behave differently. The feed-in tariff (Einspeisevergütung) is fixed for 20 years: a south-facing 10 kWp system at the German average, with 4,000 kWh of consumption, earns €665 a year at 7.70 ct/kWh. The saving of €574 in year one, by contrast, moves with the electricity price, currently 36.2 ct according to Eurostat. Nobody knows how that price will develop, so we calculate three hypotheses. At an assumed purchase price of €15,000, the system is in profit in year 13 if the price stays flat, in year 12 at a 2% annual rise and in year 11 at 4%. After 20 years, €9,794, €12,261 or €15,409 remain. As a return on the money invested, that equals 5.4 %, 6.3 % or 7.3 % a year. A battery mainly changes the final total, hardly the break-even year.
Two cash flows on different clocks
A solar PV system pays back through two channels. The feed-in tariff is the dependable part: the rate for your commissioning period, 7.70 ct/kWh up to 10 kWp according to the Federal Network Agency, applies for 20 years and does not change. For the 10 kWp system at the German average that is €665 a year. The saving is the moving part: it equals the grid power the house no longer has to buy and follows the electricity price. In year one it is €574 at 36.2 ct per kWh according to Eurostat.
Whether the electricity price will rise or fall cannot be predicted. The Eurostat series for German households shows both in recent years, a jump upwards and then some easing. We therefore use three paths as hypotheses: flat, plus 2% and plus 4% a year. Choose your own value in the mini calculator above.
The cumulative balance year by year
| after year | flat price | +2% a year | +4% a year |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | -€13,760 | -€13,760 | -€13,760 |
| 5 | -€8,802 | -€8,684 | -€8,563 |
| 10 | -€2,603 | -€2,058 | -€1,451 |
| 12 | -€124 | €687 | €1,614 |
| 15 | €3,595 | €4,912 | €6,480 |
| 20 | €9,794 | €12,261 | €15,409 |
The table starts with the purchase price as a minus and adds each year's return. The balance turns positive in year 13 if the price stays flat, in year 12 at 2% and in year 11 at 4%. The paths stay close because of the mix: in year one only 46 % of the benefit is saving, the rest is fixed payment. Only towards the end of the term, once the price rise has compounded, do the curves move clearly apart.
For comparison, an unfavourable path: if the electricity price falls by 1% a year, the system is in profit in year 13, and after 20 years €8,765 remain. That is still no loss, but a much thinner cushion.
Payback time and return are two questions
Payback time says when the money is back, not how well it was invested. For that, the internal rate of return is the right tool: the interest rate at which the returns, discounted to today, exactly equal the purchase price. For the 10 kWp system it is 5.4 % a year with a flat price, 6.3 % with a 2% rise and 7.3 % with a 4% rise. You can compare these directly with a fixed-term deposit or the rate on a loan. If the loan rate is above the internal rate, financing eats up the advantage.
What the calculation deliberately leaves out
Running costs and spare parts
Insurance, the meter fee and a possible inverter replacement are missing from the table because they differ for every house. An assumed replacement for €2,000 around year 12 lowers the surplus at a 2% price rise from €12,261 to €10,261. Use your own amounts.
Panel ageing
Panels lose a little output over the years. The calculator keeps the PVGIS yield the same for every year; if you want to be more cautious, assume a slightly lower yield or a later break-even year.
The years after the payment period
After 20 years the fixed payment ends, while the system usually keeps running. How surplus power is paid for then depends on the law in force at the time; this page counts none of it. Every further year of self-consumption is a bonus on top.
Applying the table to your quote
Your quote will rarely be exactly €15,000. Converting is simple: each euro more or less shifts the balance in every row by exactly that amount. With a benefit of €1,240 a year, €1,000 more on the price pushes the break-even year back by about 0.8 years, and a €1,000 discount brings it forward by the same. The mini calculator above gives the exact year for your price and price path.
Batteries and timing
An 8 kWh battery lifts the annual benefit to €1,714, because more solar power is used in the evening. At an assumed €21,000 for system and battery, the package is in profit in year 13, or year 12 with a 2% price rise. The battery reacts more strongly to the electricity price than the system alone, because it only produces savings and no feed-in payment. If you expect sharply rising prices, it looks better. The separate calculation is in the home battery calculator.
Mind the calendar too: the rate for new systems falls by 1 % every six months (section 49 EEG). For payback that hardly matters. Your own case with postcode is in the solar PV calculator, and how to judge the quoted price is in solar PV cost.